Editorial

June 18 2025

As Carney seeks to define his moment, has Poilievre missed his?

In politics, we should never predict that something is a done deal -- such as the outcome of an election just months away.

Rewind seven months and everything seemed inevitable for Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. The year 2024 was ending with his party about 20 points ahead in the polls of the very unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. All that was left to do before changing the drapes at Rideau Cottage was to wipe the slate clean of Liberals in the upcoming federal election.

The Conservatives spent countless resources attacking Trudeau; he was an easy target. His policies and demeanour befitted a prime minister and government that had stayed in power well past its due date. After almost a decade of running the show, Trudeau had worn out his welcome.

Aspirational rhetoric, for which he was famous, (remember sunny ways, sunny days?) rang hollow for a population facing higher prices and a real sense that things were not going to get better with Trudeau at the helm.

But the game changed suddenly in January. Trudeau announced he was resigning. All that vitriol felt for him dissipated into the cold January air.

A couple of months later, Mark Carney became the new Liberal leader and prime minister. While running a government with plenty of holdovers from the Trudeau days, Carney was much different than Trudeau.

The Poilievre Conservatives did their best during the election campaign to tie Carney to Trudeau and crush the newcomer just as they did the former prime minister, but the narrative wouldn’t stick. Sure enough, the Liberals were re-elected with a new prime minister and a somewhat recycled cabinet.

Poilievre will soon seek to win a seat in Alberta after losing his Ottawa area riding during the election. He will also face a leadership review in January.

Running against Trudeau would have guaranteed a Conservative majority government and made Poilievre prime minister. But the Tories did such an effective job of attacking Trudeau that he left and denied them an easy victory in the election.

As for Carney, he seems to be finding his political footing. This week, it appears that he may have found a solution to the trade war with Donald Trump. He has also cleverly adopted policies espoused by the Conservatives. For example, he has undertaken to reduce the carbon tax to zero, has promised to cut taxes for the middle class and to reverse the unpopular Trudeau policy on capital gains taxes. He will be spending more on defence and said he will try to find a way to get oil and gas to markets beyond the United States.

No one would confuse Carney with a stereotypical politician. He looks a bit uncomfortable. But maybe that’s what Canadians want right now. Less the flash and dash of Trudeau and more meat and potatoes and common sense.

But wasn’t that what Poilievre was promising?

Perhaps the kind of change that he offered, one with an edge that makes some Canadians nervous, was a bridge too far for voters. Carney was the compromise alternative that appeared at the perfect time for a Liberal Party that seemed destined for a significant defeat. Carney’s popularity with voters has grown while Poilievre’s is on the decline. Despite the Liberals being a minority government, an election seems very far away – when Prime Minister Carney decides to call one.

As the G7 unfolds in Alberta this week, we can’t help but wonder if Carney has found his moment, and Poilievre has missed his.